The race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th Congressional District is reaching a critical juncture, with the primary election just days away. Pelosi, who represented the San Francisco-based district for decades and served as the top House Democrat, announced her retirement earlier this year, triggering a competitive primary that pits several well-known progressives against each other. The district is among the most liberal in the nation, making the race a significant test for the political left in California.

Key Candidates and Polling Data

Three leading candidates have emerged: State Senator Scott Wiener, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, and Saikat Chakrabarti, the former chief of staff to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. California uses a nonpartisan primary system where all candidates appear on a single ballot, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. Given the district’s strong Democratic lean—it backed Kamala Harris by nearly 68 points in 2024—the general election will almost certainly be a contest between two Democrats.

Recent polls show Wiener leading the field. An EMC Research survey conducted May 3-7, 2026, of 542 likely voters gave Wiener 38 percent support, compared to Chan’s 22 percent and Chakrabarti’s 21 percent. A Sextant Strategies poll of 819 likely voters from April 28-May 3 showed Wiener at 40 percent, Chakrabarti at 18 percent, and Chan at 17 percent, with 7 percent undecided. A Lake Research Partners survey sponsored by Chan’s campaign gave Wiener 47 percent, Chan 20 percent, and Chakrabarti 17 percent among 500 likely voters polled April 29-May 3. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket also favor Wiener, placing his chances of advancing to the general election at 95 percent or higher.

Scott Wiener: A Record of Legislation

Scott Wiener has served in the California State Senate since 2016, representing parts of San Francisco and San Mateo County. He was previously on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from 2011 to 2016, and before that worked as a deputy city attorney and in private practice. Wiener is known for his work on housing policy and LGBTQ+ rights, and he has championed several first-in-the-nation laws, including mandatory paid parental leave for all working parents and requirements for water recycling and solar power in new developments.

Wiener’s campaign emphasizes his ability to deliver results. “Nancy Pelosi is an icon, and she’s moved mountains for the country and for San Francisco, and we need someone who can represent San Francisco in Congress who knows how to get things done and delivers,” he told reporters. “I’m the only candidate in the race who’s ever actually delivered and actually passed hard legislation fighting some of the largest corporations in the world.” He grew up in New Jersey but has lived in San Francisco’s Castro neighborhood since 1997.

Wiener has also focused on economic revitalization. In a 2025 interview, he said, “People love writing San Francisco’s obituary, but every time the world declares us dead, we come roaring back stronger. We’ve worked to make San Francisco more welcoming for business, including through tax reforms and improvements to public safety and public spaces.” He has received endorsements from former San Francisco Mayor London Breed and California Attorney General Rob Bonta.

Connie Chan: From Community Advocate to Supervisor

Connie Chan has served on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors since 2021, representing District 1, which includes the Richmond neighborhoods, Golden Gate Park, and the Presidio. Born in Hong Kong and raised in San Francisco, Chan has spent over two decades in city government and community advocacy. She previously worked as an aide to Kamala Harris when Harris was San Francisco District Attorney, serving as a liaison to the Asian American and Pacific Islander community.

Chan touts her progressive credentials and her commitment to working families. “We have done the work in San Francisco and have been delivering for San Franciscans, but I also have been working in city government for over 20 years,” she said. “We want to bring a San Francisco voice and San Francisco values to Washington. San Francisco is a union town, and we’re very proud of the working people’s agenda. We know this is a time that we got to deliver for the working people.”

She has clashed at times with former Mayor London Breed, particularly over housing and homeless policies. Chan is viewed as a progressive fixture in San Francisco politics, and her endorsement from Nancy Pelosi is seen as a major boost. In a video, Pelosi described Chan as the “leader best prepared to carry forward the fight for San Francisco in the Congress of the United States” and praised her understanding of the district’s values, diversity, and communities.

Saikat Chakrabarti: The Progressive Insurgent

Saikat Chakrabarti is the co-founder of Justice Democrats, the group that helped elect progressive figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He served as Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff when she entered Congress in 2019 and later founded a think tank focused on federal policy. He initially launched a primary campaign against Nancy Pelosi before she announced her retirement, which then drew other candidates into the race.

Chakrabarti describes his mission as fixing what he calls a “rigged economy.” “I have spent about 10 years now working to try to fix this rigged economy,” he said. “I started Justice Democrats to organize people to run for office. I worked in Congress as AOC’s chief of staff. And I’ve been working on the think tank side, writing federal policy for the last five years. I think we’re in this huge moment of change right now where we actually have to change the system that’s going to require organizing candidates to win.”

Justice Democrats has endorsed Chakrabarti, but Ocasio-Cortez has not made an endorsement in the race. Chakrabarti has received support from Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, as well as from progressive groups. He has argued that the Democratic Party needs to change direction to win elections. “The one thing people don’t like more than Donald Trump is a feckless and ineffective leadership in the party,” he said in April 2026.

The District and the Stakes

California’s 11th Congressional District is entirely within San Francisco, a city known for its progressive politics. The district has a strong Democratic bent, with very few registered Republicans. The nonpartisan primary system means that the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to November. In practice, the general election is likely to be between two Democrats, given the district’s composition.

The race is being closely watched as a bellwether for the direction of the progressive movement. With Pelosi’s retirement, her successor will inherit a legacy of leadership in the House and a platform to advocate for San Francisco’s interests on issues such as housing affordability, homelessness, technology regulation, and climate change. The candidates have each laid out distinct visions, with Wiener emphasizing legislative effectiveness, Chan highlighting community ties and union support, and Chakrabarti calling for systemic change.

Endorsements have added another layer to the contest. While Pelosi’s endorsement of Chan is significant, Wiener has drawn support from establishment figures like Breed and Bonta, and Chakrabarti has the backing of the progressive wing of the party. The candidates have each built unique coalitions, and voter turnout will be crucial in determining who secures a spot in the general election.

Polling shows a dynamic race. Wiener is the clear frontrunner, but the battle for second place between Chan and Chakrabarti is tight. Prediction markets also reflect this, with Wiener given a 95 percent chance of advancing, Chan at 69 percent, and Chakrabarti at only 35 percent. However, prediction markets measure trader sentiment and are not always accurate. The final days of the campaign are likely to see a surge in advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.

The primary election is set for Tuesday, and the outcome will set the stage for a general election that, while not competitive in a partisan sense, will determine who carries Pelosi’s mantle in Congress. San Francisco’s voters face a choice between three accomplished progressives, each with a different record and vision for the future.

Source: MSN News